2026 Midterm Results

Where things stand

Senate: Democrats win the Senate. 51 for control; a 50-50 tie goes to Republicans.
Governors: Democrats win most governorships.
House: Democrats win.
Flips: Democrats gain Nevada governor, Maine Senate, Kansas Senate, Iowa Senate, Ohio Senate, Texas governor, Texas Senate, Ohio governor, Iowa governor, South Carolina Senate, Georgia governor, North Carolina Senate.
Our record: 60 of 64 right. Missed Iowa Senate (we had R +0.3), Vermont governor (we had D +0.9), Texas governor (we had R +2.3), South Carolina Senate (we had R +2.0).
Closest open races: Kansas governor (D +0.4), Alaska Senate (R +0.6), Mississippi Senate (R +9.9), Alaska governor (D +11.2), New Mexico Senate (D +16.9).

Senate

Democrats win the Senate

53–44 seats won or held

3 races not called yet. Our forecast called 30 of 32 decided races right.

51 for majority

Closest races in our forecast

KSHamilton vs MarshallD +0.0
IATurek vs HinsonR +0.3
AKPeltola vs SullivanR +0.6
TXTalarico vs PaxtonD +1.3
OHBrown vs HustedD +1.8
SCAndrews vs GrahamR +2.0
MEJackson vs CollinsD +3.7
MIEl-Sayed vs RogersD +5.1

House

Democrats win the House

232–203 our forecast

Our forecast called the majority right.

185

108

218 for majority

Closest races in our forecast

MISean McCann vs Bill HuizengaD +0.2
OHMarcy Kaptur vs Derek MerrinD +0.2
TXJohnny Garcia vs Carlos De La CruzR +0.3
OHKristina Knickerbocker vs Mike TurnerR +0.3
VAShannon Taylor vs Rob WittmanR +0.5
MOFred Wellman vs Ann WagnerD +0.5
WIRebecca Cooke vs Derrick Van OrdenR +0.6
KYZach Dembo vs Ralph AlvaradoR +0.7

Governors

Democrats win most governorships

27–20 seats won or held

3 races not called yet. Our forecast called 30 of 32 decided races right.

26 for majority

Closest races in our forecast

NVFord vs LombardoD +0.2
GABottoms vs JacksonD +0.2
KSHolscher vs MastersonD +0.4
VTJanoo vs ScottD +0.9
TXHinojosa vs AbbottR +2.3
ORKotek vs DrazanD +3.6
OHActon vs RamaswamyD +3.7
FLJolly vs DonaldsR +4.3

Race calls

65 races called · 61 right (94%)

6 still counting. Each call needs two news outlets reporting the winner.

32/35races called

30/32 · 94%called right

7flips · D +7, R +0

3still counting

Still counting

Alaska Senate Peltola vs Sullivanour forecast R +0.6 · Sullivan 55%
Mississippi Senate Colom vs Hyde-Smithour forecast R +9.9 · Hyde-Smith 98%
New Mexico Senate Luján vs Markerour forecast D +16.9 · Luján 100%

Called

2:20 AMAlme (R) wins Montana SenateResult R +10.1 · our forecast R +12.2 ✓
2:10 AMRicketts (R) wins Nebraska SenateResult R +6.6 · our forecast R +5.7 ✓
2:00 AMRisch (R) wins Idaho SenateResult R +22.9 · our forecast R +17.3 ✓
1:30 AMEl-Sayed (D) wins Michigan SenateResult D +7.0 · our forecast D +5.1 ✓
1:10 AMHagerty (R) wins Tennessee SenateResult R +12.2 · our forecast R +25.0 ✓
12:40 AMFlanagan (D) wins Minnesota SenateResult D +10.1 · our forecast D +6.8 ✓
12:30 AMJackson (D) wins Maine SenateFlipResult D +7.7 · our forecast D +3.7 ✓
12:00 AMRounds (R) wins South Dakota SenateResult R +21.0 · our forecast R +15.2 ✓
12:00 AMLetlow (R) wins Louisiana SenateResult R +1.8 · our forecast R +6.6 ✓
11:40 PMMoore (R) wins Alabama SenateResult R +9.4 · our forecast R +16.5 ✓
11:30 PMMerkley (D) wins Oregon SenateResult D +16.1 · our forecast D +27.6 ✓
11:30 PMHamilton (D) wins Kansas SenateFlipResult D +4.8 · our forecast D +0.0 ✓
11:30 PMTurek (D) wins Iowa SenateFlipResult D +4.1 · our forecast R +0.3 ✗
11:30 PMCotton (R) wins Arkansas SenateResult R +11.9 · our forecast R +19.8 ✓
11:20 PMBrown (D) wins Ohio SenateFlipResult D +4.8 · our forecast D +1.8 ✓
11:10 PMTalarico (D) wins Texas SenateFlipResult D +12.3 · our forecast D +1.3 ✓
11:00 PMCapito (R) wins West Virginia SenateResult R +20.4 · our forecast R +42.3 ✓
10:40 PMHickenlooper (D) wins Colorado SenateResult D +24.6 · our forecast D +19.3 ✓
10:30 PMHern (R) wins Oklahoma SenateResult R +18.1 · our forecast R +26.1 ✓
10:10 PMAndrews (D) wins South Carolina SenateFlipResult D +4.4 · our forecast R +2.0 ✗
9:20 PMHageman (R) wins Wyoming SenateResult R +30.4 · our forecast R +38.1 ✓
9:10 PMReed (D) wins Rhode Island SenateResult D +37.1 · our forecast D +29.5 ✓
9:00 PMBarr (R) wins Kentucky SenateResult R +12.1 · our forecast R +17.0 ✓
8:30 PMCooper (D) wins North Carolina SenateFlipResult D +19.6 · our forecast D +9.1 ✓
8:30 PMBooker (D) wins New Jersey SenateResult D +27.2 · our forecast D +19.2 ✓
8:30 PMCoons (D) wins Delaware SenateResult D +27.2 · our forecast D +29.0 ✓
8:20 PMPappas (D) wins New Hampshire SenateResult D +14.3 · our forecast D +8.6 ✓
8:10 PMMoody (R) wins Florida SenateResult R +2.9 · our forecast R +5.7 ✓
8:10 PMMarkey (D) wins Massachusetts SenateResult D +32.0 · our forecast D +28.5 ✓
8:10 PMStratton (D) wins Illinois SenateResult D +23.5 · our forecast D +14.7 ✓
7:50 PMOssoff (D) wins Georgia SenateResult D +18.0 · our forecast D +9.6 ✓
7:20 PMWarner (D) wins Virginia SenateResult D +22.4 · our forecast D +19.0 ✓

32/35races called

30/32 · 94%called right

5flips · D +5, R +0

3still counting

Still counting

Kansas governor Holscher vs Mastersonour forecast D +0.4 · Holscher 53%
Alaska governor Kreiss-Tomkins vs Wilsonour forecast D +11.2 · Kreiss-Tomkins 98%
Hawaii governor Green vs Corderyour forecast D +27.5 · Green 100%

Called

5:10 AMFord (D) wins Nevada governorFlipResult D +7.5 · our forecast D +0.2 ✓
2:40 AMPillen (R) wins Nebraska governorResult R +8.3 · our forecast R +6.6 ✓
2:10 AMLittle (R) wins Idaho governorResult R +25.0 · our forecast R +19.7 ✓
1:00 AMAyotte (R) wins New Hampshire governorResult R +3.9 · our forecast R +4.9 ✓
12:20 AMTuberville (R) wins Alabama governorResult R +4.2 · our forecast R +7.6 ✓
12:20 AMRhoden (R) wins South Dakota governorResult R +27.0 · our forecast R +17.0 ✓
12:20 AMKlobuchar (D) wins Minnesota governorResult D +12.9 · our forecast D +11.2 ✓
12:10 AMBlackburn (R) wins Tennessee governorResult R +2.5 · our forecast R +9.6 ✓
11:40 PMKotek (D) wins Oregon governorResult D +6.2 · our forecast D +3.6 ✓
11:30 PMPingree (D) wins Maine governorResult D +18.4 · our forecast D +9.7 ✓
11:20 PMScott (R) wins Vermont governorResult R +7.0 · our forecast D +0.9 ✗
11:10 PMHinojosa (D) wins Texas governorFlipResult D +7.3 · our forecast R +2.3 ✗
11:10 PMBecerra (D) wins California governorResult D +28.0 · our forecast D +22.9 ✓
11:00 PMHaaland (D) wins New Mexico governorResult D +14.4 · our forecast D +8.4 ✓
10:50 PMCrowley (D) wins Wisconsin governorResult D +8.2 · our forecast D +4.6 ✓
10:50 PMActon (D) wins Ohio governorFlipResult D +7.9 · our forecast D +3.7 ✓
10:50 PMSanders (R) wins Arkansas governorResult R +15.3 · our forecast R +18.4 ✓
10:50 PMHobbs (D) wins Arizona governorResult D +13.1 · our forecast D +7.8 ✓
10:40 PMWilson (R) wins South Carolina governorResult R +4.5 · our forecast R +7.7 ✓
10:40 PMBenson (D) wins Michigan governorResult D +10.8 · our forecast D +8.3 ✓
10:30 PMSand (D) wins Iowa governorFlipResult D +11.0 · our forecast D +6.8 ✓
10:10 PMMazzei (R) wins Oklahoma governorResult R +6.1 · our forecast R +9.0 ✓
9:50 PMLamont (D) wins Connecticut governorResult D +17.6 · our forecast D +17.2 ✓
9:40 PMWeiser (D) wins Colorado governorResult D +27.3 · our forecast D +16.6 ✓
9:30 PMBarlow (R) wins Wyoming governorResult Uncontested · our forecast R +20.3 ✓
9:30 PMBottoms (D) wins Georgia governorFlipResult D +8.6 · our forecast D +0.2 ✓
9:10 PMHochul (D) wins New York governorResult D +20.4 · our forecast D +13.7 ✓
8:40 PMDonalds (R) wins Florida governorResult R +1.3 · our forecast R +4.3 ✓
8:30 PMHealey (D) wins Massachusetts governorResult D +28.8 · our forecast D +23.5 ✓
8:20 PMShapiro (D) wins Pennsylvania governorResult D +21.9 · our forecast D +23.0 ✓
8:10 PMMoore (D) wins Maryland governorResult D +29.4 · our forecast D +27.9 ✓
8:10 PMPritzker (D) wins Illinois governorResult D +23.0 · our forecast D +19.2 ✓

Live Results

Closest races in our forecast

Closest races in our forecast

Closest races in our forecast

Still counting

Called

Still counting

Called

Called